Malcolm Turnbull is 20 points ahead of Bill Shorten as the leader more capable of managing tax reform in a Newspoll that has the Coalition slightly improving its two-party position in the past fortnight to lead Labor 51-49%.

The poll shows Turnbull’s satisfaction rating becoming negative in net terms for the first time, but he remains well ahead of Shorten.

Despite the government’s well-publicised problems in getting together a tax package and Labor having extensive policy out, 45% said Turnbull was more capable of managing tax reform while only 25% opted for Shorten. This is a little down from Turnbull’s lead of 48-26% last month on this question. The result comes as the government has indicated that a company tax cut will be given priority over personal income tax cuts in this budget.

Turnbull also had a commanding lead over Shorten as the one more capable of managing the economy – 54-20%.

The Coalition is sitting on a 51-49% two-party lead in this poll, after being level pegging with Labor in the last two Newspolls. Its primary vote is steady on 43%; Labor is down one point to 34%; the Greens are still on 12%.

Satisfaction with Turnbull’s performance has fallen from 44% to 39%; dissatisfaction has climbed from 41% to 44%. His net satisfaction is minus five.

Shorten’s satisfaction is down two points to 28% while his dissatisfaction is down three to 52%, for a net rating of minus 24.

Turnbull strongly leads on better prime minister 52-21%, despite his rating falling three points.

Most people think the government will win the election – 55% predict a Coalition victory, compared with only 25% who think Labor will win.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.