S&P 500 shrugs off Trump’s positive COVID-19 test, aims higher

• Global equity averages have rebounded through late September/ early October, starting to reverse the September bear moves.

• Despite US President Donald Trump testing positive for COVID-19 late last week, US equity markets and stock averages dipped, but then posted solid rebounds.

• Here we look at upside prospects into early October from a technical analysis perspective for the future on the US benchmark average, the S&P 500.

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S&P 500 day trade outlook: Upside risks intact

Day trade update and view

A Friday sell-off through 3330/28 supports, but holding above the 3291.25 swing low, at 3300.25, to retain upside pressures from the latter September dip and bounce from above the 3282.0 support (from 3291.25), to keep the risk to the upside Monday.

Day trade setup

• We see an upside bias for 3365.25; a break here aims for 3388.0 and then quickly to 3393/94, maybe key peaks at 3419.5/24.25.

• But below 3300.25 quickly targets 3291.25 and also opens risk down to 3282.0, possibly 3243/42.

S&P 500 intermediate-term outlook

The early September sell-off below 3319.5 signalled an intermediate-term shift to a broader range seen as 3190.25/88.5 to 3484.25.

• Downside risks: Below 3190.25/88.5 sets an intermediate-term bear trend to target 3105.25, 3000.0, 2983.5 and 2923.75.

• Upside risks: Above 3419.5/24.25 sets an intermediate-term bull trend to target 3587.0, the 3626/30 extension target area and 3709.75.

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